Advanced Weather Verification Scoring Algorithms Paper 2

In this second series, we provide a detailed description of the weather scoring algorithms currently incorporated into the Mine-Weather system. It uses a number of scoring models based on statistical methods to verify weather attributes (temperature, precipitation, wind speed/gust, etc.) in the form of scores. When considering numeric variables (point forecasts like temperature, % forecast Humidity, etc.) the scoring is based on the numeric comparisons of forecasted values against the observed actuals. For dichotomous attributes, we compare the forecasts against actuals by using statistical contingency tables as the basis for the score calculations. Mine-Weather also has capabilities for verifying special Weather Events (hurricanes, winter storms, etc.) that are of great importance to utilities.

In this second series, we provide a detailed description of the weather scoring algorithms currently incorporated into the Mine-Weather system. It uses a number of scoring models based on statistical methods to verify weather attributes (temperature, precipitation, wind speed/gust, etc.) in the form of scores. When considering numeric variables (point forecasts like temperature, % forecast Humidity, etc.) the scoring is based on the numeric comparisons of forecasted values against the observed actuals. For dichotomous attributes, we compare the forecasts against actuals by using statistical contingency tables as the basis for the score calculations. Mine-Weather also has capabilities for verifying special Weather Events (hurricanes, winter storms, etc.) that are of great importance to utilities.

  • See the different weather attributes for which forecast verification is currently provided
  • Know the various methods for verifying forecasts of continuous variables
  • Examine the various statistical measurements to compute forecast errors
  • Find out how to evaluate vendors based on composite scoring of weather forecasts

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